Official structure
The 2026 number of fixed seats in each of Sweden's 29 constituencies comes from Valmyndigheten.
Sweden · Riksdag scenario
Move the vote.
Count the seats.
Test national vote-share scenarios against Sweden's electoral rules. The output is a deterministic model—not a poll and not a forecast.
349Riksdag seats4.0%National threshold175Majority
Scenario input
Set national vote share
Modeled parties98.46%
Other parties · residual1.54%
Other is an unallocated residual, not one combined party.
MODEL · v1.0.0
Initial shares reproduce the official 2022 national percentages. National shares are distributed using each party's official 2022 constituency pattern, then calculated with the official 2026 fixed-seat allocation.
Deterministic result
Riksdag scenario
Allocated349seats
Majority175required
Qualifying8parties
175
PartyShareThresholdSeatsvs 2022
Social Democrats103 fixed + 4 adjustment
Sweden Democrats69 fixed + 4 adjustment
Moderates68 fixed + 0 adjustment
Left Party16 fixed + 8 adjustment
Centre Party23 fixed + 1 adjustment
Christian Democrats12 fixed + 7 adjustment
Green Party10 fixed + 8 adjustment
Liberals9 fixed + 7 adjustmentCoalition arithmetic
Build a combination
0/ 175 seats175 short
No political bloc is predefined. Coalition arithmetic reflects only the parties selected by the user.
Method · pv-riksdag-scenario v1.0.0
Rules first. Assumptions visible.
The seat engine implements 310 fixed constituency seats, 39 adjustment seats, the modified odd-numbers method with first divisor 1.2, the national 4% threshold and the constituency-only 12% rule.
Geographic projection
Each entered national share retains that party's 2022 distribution between constituencies. This is the model assumption—not an official fact.
Backtested engine
The same independent rule engine exactly reproduces the official 2018 and 2022 fixed, adjustment and total seat outcomes.
Not a forecast
No polling, probability or uncertainty model is present. The page answers “what if these shares occurred?” only.