Official structure
The 2026 number of fixed seats in each of Sweden's 29 constituencies comes from Valmyndigheten.
Sweden · Riksdag scenario
Move the vote.
Count the seats.
Test national vote-share scenarios against Sweden's electoral rules. The output is a deterministic model—not a poll and not a forecast.
349Riksdag seats4.0%National threshold175Majority
Scenario input
Set national vote share
Final election result 2026 · 19 Sept 14:53
Modeled parties98.42%
Other parties · residual1.58%
Other is an unallocated residual, not one combined party.
MODEL · v1.2.0
The baseline reproduces the authority’s final votes and all 349 seats. Your changes are model scenarios based on the version you started with; reset to use the latest result.
Election result 2026
Riksdag scenario
Allocated349seats
Majority175required
Qualifying8parties
175
PartyShareThresholdSeatsvs 2022
Social Democrats94 fixed + 5 adjustment
Moderates68 fixed + 2 adjustment
Sweden Democrats60 fixed + 2 adjustment
Left Party27 fixed + 3 adjustment
Centre Party17 fixed + 8 adjustment
Christian Democrats20 fixed + 2 adjustment
Green Party13 fixed + 9 adjustment
Liberals11 fixed + 8 adjustmentCoalition arithmetic
Build a combination
0/ 175 seats175 short
No political bloc is predefined. Coalition arithmetic reflects only the parties selected by the user.
Method · pv-riksdag-scenario v1.2.0
Rules first. Assumptions visible.
The seat engine implements 310 fixed constituency seats, 39 adjustment seats, the modified odd-numbers method with first divisor 1.2, the national 4% threshold and the constituency-only 12% rule.
Geographic projection
Scenarios start from the final election result’s constituency distribution. When you change a share, the party’s geographic pattern from that result is retained.
Backtested engine
The same independent rule engine exactly reproduces the official 2018 and 2022 fixed, adjustment and total seat outcomes.
Not a forecast
The baseline reproduces the final election result. An edited scenario is your own calculation and does not affect official results.