Politicalverse forecast · 2026
Opinion polls, four comparable historical elections and Sweden's actual seat allocation rules, combined in a forecast showing outcomes and uncertainty.
Will S, V, MP and C win at least 175 seats?
96.2 %This measures seat strength. It does not mean C and V accept the same government. Yes if S, V, MP and C together receive at least 175 of 349 seats in the Election Authority's final parliamentary result.
191seats in the central forecast
158seats in the central forecast1077164302723270*Respondents may appear in multiple polls; the sum is not a count of unique people.
Forecast questions · clear definitions
Frequency in simulated elections, not betting odds
Each card answers a specific question. The percentage shows how often its condition was met in the simulated election outcomes; open the definition to see exactly how the question is resolved.
This measures seat strength. It does not mean C and V accept the same government.
Yes if S, V, MP and C together receive at least 175 of 349 seats in the Election Authority's final parliamentary result. The forecast is a model, not a market price or a promise.
L's threshold position is the largest individual risk to the declared seat grouping.
Yes if M, SD, KD and L together receive at least 175 seats in the final result. The forecast is a model, not a market price or a promise.
The threshold makes small movements around four percent very important for seat allocation.
Yes if the Liberals receive at least 4.00 percent of valid votes nationally. The forecast is a model, not a market price or a promise.
The model weighs the polling centre against historical forecast errors and variation between pollsters.
Yes if the Christian Democrats receive at least 4.00 percent of valid votes nationally. The forecast is a model, not a market price or a promise.
Being the largest party affects negotiations but does not automatically appoint the prime minister.
Yes if the Social Democrats receive the highest national vote share among the modelled parliamentary parties. The forecast is a model, not a market price or a promise.
Vote forecast → seats
The central estimate is the model's most concentrated scenario. Intervals show the middle range of the simulations, making uncertainty visible before discussing seats.
What drives the forecast
Automatically derived from the current snapshot
The threshold, largest party, distance to 175 and seat range explain the probabilities. These are diagnostics, not separate opinion polls.
Small movements around four percent can shift many seats between the blocs. This is the model's most sensitive threshold at present.
Social Democrats is largest in this share of simulations. That strengthens a negotiating position but does not appoint a prime minister.
The central scenario is 11 seats from the majority threshold. Political compatibility is treated separately as sourced context.
The widest 80% interval shows where seat outcomes vary most across simulations. Outcomes beyond the interval remain possible.
Seats meet politics
The model counts seat groupings. It does not assume a mathematical majority automatically forms a government: negative parliamentarism, tolerance and the parties' public conditions determine the next step.
S + V + MP + C reaches an outright majority in
96.2 %of simulations · not prime minister oddsM + SD + KD + L reaches an outright majority in
3.8 %of simulations · not prime minister oddsThe seats may suffice, but C rejects V in government. A majority is therefore not a completed coalition.
An outright majority describes seat arithmetic. Forming a government also requires party conditions to be compatible or tolerated.Seats for three red-green parties. The model does not assume other parties will tolerate the government.
An outright majority describes seat arithmetic. Forming a government also requires party conditions to be compatible or tolerated.An Andersson grouping without V in government; it normally requires external support or tolerance.
An outright majority describes seat arithmetic. Forming a government also requires party conditions to be compatible or tolerated.C has suggested this centrist solution, but the parties have no joint government agreement.
An outright majority describes seat arithmetic. Forming a government also requires party conditions to be compatible or tolerated.The four Tidö parties' seat grouping. This is a seat forecast, not a settled government decision.
An outright majority describes seat arithmetic. Forming a government also requires party conditions to be compatible or tolerated.Forecast movement
Only information published by each date
This shows the central seat estimate as newly published polls arrive. A movement means the model's inputs have changed, not that voters have certainly switched sides.
First reported point22 Apr 2026S + V + MP + C 191M + SD + KD + L 158
Latest data point7 Sept 2026S + V + MP + C 191M + SD + KD + L 158
Each point is recalculated using only information published by that date. The line shows the model's central seat estimate, not observed election results.
OFFICIAL · Swedish Election Authority
The model is kept separate from official facts. The historical chart below shows certified vote shares, not model values, as an open reference.
Explore Politicalverse
Open without an account. Forecasts, official results and methods are clearly classified as MODEL, OFFICIAL or DERIVED.
All questions, seat intervals, paths to government, historical tests and source records.
Follow each parliamentary party's final results across comparable elections.
Explore the Election Authority's results municipality by municipality, party by party.
Build your own vote-share scenario and see how Sweden's seat allocation rules apply.
